5-2 Vanderbilt Football Mail Bag: Answers to your Questions - Anchor Of Gold

Oct 25, 2024

Filed under:

You ask, we answer.

Vandy has a 5-star QB coming this weekend, and basketball picked up a 4-star center. While the Alabama upset was earth-shaking, triumphantly taking the goalposts to the Cumberland River and dumping it generated massive publicity nationwide. Will the $100K fine be the greatest return on investment in SEC history?

Tom Stephenson: The greatest return on investment in SEC history remains Cam Newton. This answer is specifically intended to trigger Patrick.

Cole Sullivan: THE POLICE GAVE US A FREE ESCORT DOWN BROADWAY WHILE THE STUDENTS PUT ON AN IMPROMPTU PARADE FOR NEARLY AN HOUR! We got a return on investment before the goalposts were even sleeping with the fishes. We didn’t just make headlines on ESPN and in The Athletic, we got mentioned on Last Week Tonight and Saturday Night Live. The $100k fine has already seen the greatest return on investment in SEC history, at least on a single-school level. What, did you think the eight millions dollars THEM is paying Nico Iamaleava has been better?

PatrickSawyer: Yeah, the entire spectacle of it all is a huge return. The auction for the memorabilia easily paid for the fine, and they have continued to do auctions for Kentucky items and now for VIP experiences. It has really been brilliantly capitalized upon by the athletic department, including the social media accounts. I do not know if it is the greatest return on investment in SEC history, but I think as a percentage increase in revenue (including donations to NIL), it would be at the top for regular season games. Obviously, the payout for a CFP birth, even after revenue sharing, is probably bigger than the cash flow from that event. Of course, that single moment could spur VU onto some moments (like a bowl this season) and recruiting wins that bring more successes and fan attention in the future.

Andrew VU ‘04: Most athletic departments run at a deficit, and more success in the NIL era likely breeds a bigger bill for the boosters (and perhaps even the university) to pay, but I don’t give two shits about that. If T. Boone Ingram wants to throw down $10-50 mil per year on teenagers, I say let him. It will certainly cause more ticket sales, and, more importantly, make my Saturdays in the fall less terrible. We’re Vanderbilt. If we can’t throw our money around, why even have it?

So we beat Bama. Bama beat Georgia. Georgia beat Texas. So now the only thing standing between a bowl game and an SEC-ouroboros is finding out which Vandy team is gonna take the field on Saturday.

Will we see the team that came out and played great, efficient, smart ball against Bama and Kentucky, or are we gonna see the one that showed up Saturday and fooled around? Also, can someone please let me know WHAT IS HAPPENING because I just don’t even know anymore.

Tom Stephenson: The main noticeable thing about Saturday’s near-debacle was that they didn’t seem as eager to run Diego Pavia, even though the offense basically doesn’t function without the threat of Pavia running the ball, and I think that was part injury and part not wanting to show its cards ahead of a much more important game. The point is that this team has shown an incredible ability to play exactly to the level of its competition, whether the competition is Georgia State or Alabama, and we will probably see that again on Saturday.

Cole Sullivan: I think our team will come out worn down after an emotional rollercoaster, but I also think that 1) Diego Pavia will still be “on” and 2) Texas is more likely to be dejected than they are to be angry. I think, if Lea is smart, he may actually go sort of easy on the guys this week. They have a herculean task ahead of them and a lot of reasons both physical and mental for why they could doubt themselves. I think we need dudes who are truly enjoying what they are doing out there on Saturday if we are going to win, and I’m not sure if we’ll get that, but I do think we will still be in a better mindset than Texas because, hey, we’ve been winning and they haven’t.

PatrickSawyer: Aria Gerson of The Tennessean and I had a short Twitter exchange about the Ball State game. We disagreed on how much Vanderbilt should have won that game by, but the key takeaway is that ball control means the difference in winning and losing is conversions. Vanderbilt settled for 3 FGs (2 kicked from inside the Ball State 10) against Ball State and only scored 2 TDs on 8 drives they were trying to move the ball. Against Alabama, Vanderbilt also had 8 drives they did not intentionally end with a kneel down. They scored 4 TDs and 2 FGs.

Finding ways to finish drives in the end zone when you limit possessions makes life very difficult for opposing teams. Thankfully, the Commodores are #8 in the country in 3rd down conversion percentage. The “playing to their level of competition” is probably a fair assessment when they do have to keep converting over and over again on drives. Just a slight downtick in attention to detail or cut-throat play calling can have drives stalling against lesser opponents while seemingly never ending against better teams.

To that point, I think we see “best Vandy” again. Is Texas a better defense than Alabama? Maybe. I refuse to bet against Pavia unless he is squaring off with the Chicken Curse.

Andrew VU ‘04: All I know is that “Jerry Kill” is a complete sentence.

I guess i’ve been a Vandy fan for too long, but I’ve come to expect the worst. We are one win away from bowl eligibility, will we get there? I could see us winning a couple more, or I could see us losing out. Your opinion?

Tom Stephenson: I mean, yeah? See comment above. This team has a habit of getting itself into close games and winning some of them, so the odds of going 0-5 down the stretch are... not likely. I’m gonna play it safe and say we finish 6-6, because I’ve learned what happens when I expect more.

Cole Sullivan: We will beat Auburn. We are apparently still not favored against them, but like, they are a bad team. If for no other reason than their turnover ratio is -10 and ours is +6, I really don’t see how any person, formula, or book is still picking the pitiful little War Tigers to beat the man who hates Auburn so much he transferred in all the way from New Mexico State just to beat them a second time in two years. Also, they are 5/10 on field goals while we are 14/17. Even if our offense has an off day on the Plains, as long as we can get across midfield (which on this site is something we celebrate!) you can rest assured “Big Sock” Brock Taylor gets it through the uprights. Why “Big Sock” you may ask? Well a dude with a MASSIVE leg needs even bigger socks!

Outside of Auburn, and ignoring the fact I think we’ll win every game, every time, someone from ESPN said we are a really good matchup against C H I C K E N C U R S E, so hey, maybe this is the year? Shorthorns, Bayou Boozehounds, and THEM are more of a stretch, but we’ve proven we have a gameplan that works, and in every single power conference game we’ve played this year, we’ve proven we can lock in and execute. I for one am just glad we don’t have Kent State left to play.

PatrickSawyer: The trio of Kill, Beck, and Pavia hate Hugh Freeze with enough passion to have beaten him at Liberty and Auburn while the protagonists were at New Mexico State. Our heroes wanted to do it again, so they reconvened at Vanderbilt.

Texas is a longshot, and it may go horribly if the offense sputters. I refuse to expect us to break the Chicken Curse. LSU is interesting. Pavia in a rivalry game seems like a lock. I think CJ Taylor and plenty of others will be coming for blood against THEM, too.

So bowling? Absolutely. Record? 7-5 or 8-4.

Andrew VU ‘04: I think Jerry Kill, Tim Beck, and Diego Pavia would sooner cut off a limb than allow us to lose out. This will be, as always in SEC Feetball, a Trial By Ordeal, where we must face Tejas, then at The Auburn War Tigers, then The South Cackalacky Game Penises, then at the Yellow Shoe Gumbo Bengals, and finally back home to face the Knoxville Buttchuggers. This schedule is brutal and doesn’t let up... but so are Diego Pavia, Sedrick the Entertainer, Eli Stowers, Random Fontanelle, Langston Patterson, and CJ Taylor.

I will not bet against this team again.

How low class is it to rush the field and tear down the goalposts by beating a team that was only ranked #7? I mean, really...

Tom Stephenson: As low class as throwing a bottle of French’s mustard on the field after a call didn’t go your way.

Cole Sullivan: I wrote something super mean here then decided to delete it because I, unlike any human being who has ever attended, rooted for, or worked at That Ugly Orange School, have at least one ounce of class. Maybe even two.

PatrickSawyer: They also had fans injured and didn't even get the goal posts off the field. Pathetic. Lots of noise. No results. Just like most everything THEY do.

Andrew VU ‘04: Hahaha. Not to mention how gauche it is to copy us. Stop trying to make “fetch” happen, Buttchuggers.

Does Lea need to hire a full-time defensive coordinator for next season?

Who is the Jerry Kill of defense and how quickly can we get them?

Tom Stephenson: I don’t think he has to, because this is frankly misunderstanding what it means when a head coach elects to serve as his own “defensive coordinator” — which typically just means he’s taking over playcalling duties on Saturday but outsourcing the remainder of coordinator duties to assistants, which is why Steve Gregory has the title “Associate Defensive Coordinator” and Nick Lezynski “Defensive Run Game Coordinator.” (But the latter is more than likely who will be defensive coordinator next season if it’s not Lea.)

Cole Sullivan: I really do think, at least for maybe another year or so, we may have to go full mercenary mode. The top non-Power conference (+weirdo loner boy Notre Dame) schools in defensive efficiency are UNLV (21st), NIU (22nd), Fresno State (26th), JMU (34th), and Toledo (41st). I don’t have a wealth of football knowledge spouting out the top of my head, so I can’t tell you offhand who coaches at these schools and if these defenses are the real deal or not, but I do think we may need to take a looksie at programs like this and consider another buccaneer mission.

PatrickSawyer: I think Clark is readying someone in-house, and that's probably the right decision. Create the protege who knows exactly what you want and can be an extension of yourself. Then keep the pipeline full of position coaches you are training for that role. He may have to keep calling plays next season and take over play calling for a season or two in the future with the way assistants get poached, but he clearly wants very specific things from the defense. Finding an established DC who can hit all those notes could be difficult.

Andrew VU ‘04: Listen, if he can find another Jerry Kill, you absolutely bring him, his D-Coordinator, and his Defensive Diego Pavia in. With how impactful Kill, Beck, and Pavia have been on this team, the only person I can imagine having that much impact is Bill Belichick. I mean, we know he’s friends with Corbs and has a thing for much younger women...

As for a real answer, perhaps Brent Venables would like to do a semi-retirement consultancy thing after Boomer Sooner fires him into the sun. His Clemson defenses were always dominant.

No, wait, I do have a real answer. Tracy Rocker, Kumar’s dad, is currently the D-Line coach for the Tennessee Titans. You know that entire coaching staff will be shit-canned before season’s end. I’d like to bring him along as a high paid defensive line coach, buy a few stud d-linemen, and make that side of the trenches as big, strong, and tough as our O-line has been this year. He wouldn’t even have to put his house up for sale.

I’m agnostic as to whether or not Clark Lea should be his own defensive coordinator. I’m certain we would love to have more Rockers on campus (*not John).

This has been quite the rollercoaster season already. Attempt to predict the next big memory and fill in the blank for the Texas game:

We apologize, we are out of ...

Sept 7 - fireworks

Sept 21 - points

Oct 5 - goalposts

Oct 26 - __________

Tom Stephenson: Seats in the student section. Huzzah!

Cole Sullivan: plastic water bottles, apparently?

PatrickSawyer: Upright Horns

Andrew VU ‘04: Bort license plates.

- What are your takes on “Keys to the Last 5 Games” to finish 2-3 or better? (And why is one midrange+ pass defense?)

- Which ranked team left are we most likely to knock off? (And why is it UT? Which one? Yes.)

- How are we still projected to be underdogs at Auburn?

Tom Stephenson: They need to keep Pavia healthy and that’s literally it. Like if the ask is what they have to do to go 2-3 or better, well, Pavia probably gets them there by himself. If you’re asking what they have to do to win out and make the Playoff, well, that’s probably a different answer.

Surprise answer: it’s LSU, who like us likes to play a lot of close games and could stumble.

We’re projected to be underdogs at Auburn because the analytics say Auburn’s actually a pretty good team that’s gotten incredibly unlucky; but, if you actually watch Auburn play football, well, that ain’t bad luck.

Cole Sullivan: Effort and Execution. We have enough talent to compete with anyone, and our gameplan has proven effective, but there have been times where dudes haven’t seemed to care as much and that’s been where we’ve flopped.

As for which ranked team we are most likely to knockoff? I think it’s Texas because they’ll be coming off their big letdown. Next I’d pick LSU because I just don’t think they’ll have any special reason to care about the game or to look past it. Finally, I think Orange School will take us seriously the way they occasionally do, especially if an SEC Championship Game berth and/or a playoff spot is on the line for them.

As for the Auburn thing, I have no earthly idea.

PatrickSawyer: I don’t think the mid-range pass defense is the key. I think there are three keys. 1) The Commodores need to stay healthy. 2) Keep preventing the long TDs. Big plays that do not score can be okay because this defense is buckling down in the red zone. 3) Keep converting on 3rd downs and scoring TDs in the red zone. If they do those 3 things, Vanderbilt should beat Auburn and Tennessee at the very least.

I think Tennessee is the most likely ranked win. Their offense is pretty one-dimensional in the way that we can defend. And, as I have said, Pavia is not going to let them stop him.

The Auburn underdog thing is just dumb. There is no logic to it.

Andrew VU ‘04: The #1 key, as always, is health. #2 is continuing to play the Time of Possession game to frustrate high-powered offenses like Tejas and The Buttchuggers. Further, that Time of Possession game keeps our defense fresh, and able to take some more risks w/r/t forcing turnovers and bringing inventive blitz packages. #3 is continuing to befuddle opposing defenses with innovative play-calls we have not yet used. Yes, Beck, the offense is doing great, but they’ve got it on tape. Will have to ask Henry Winkler to borrow the patented Coach Klein playbook at some point and shock them with something they didn’t see coming. #4 is Castillo continuing to be the world’s largest football center and completely taking opposing NTs out of the game. You’re just going to have to trust me that defensive coordinators will not be able to counter this. Not this season, at least. #5 is not committing targeting penalties and missing halves of games. That’s my best guess.

Our inability to make long throw and catch plays consistently bothers me. It really seems like that is about the only thing that keeps from consistently high levels of offensive cromulence. What say ye?

Tom Stephenson: Well, if there’s a weakness in Pavia’s game, it’s arm strength and that’s what you have to have to make long throw and catch plays.

Cole Sullivan: I mean, we’ve proven we sometimes can make those big plays. I think part of it is our game is focused around ball security, so it just doesn’t make sense for us to go for massive pass plays when we often don’t have the fastest dudes on the field at receiver. But yeah, if we were able to make one or two more huge plays a game in the air, consistently, we’d be unstoppable.

PatrickSawyer: A tall, athletic WR is the most glaring shortcoming of this team. We have some fast guys, but they are all smaller and still struggle to win 1v1 downfield unless play design gets safeties out of position. Cole is right about the ball security objective. There probably are some opportunities to look downfield on 2nd and short though. It is hard to argue too much with the playcalling when the team is up to 35th in Points Per Game from 103rd in 2023. The Commodores averaged 22.8 PPG a season ago and have only failed to score that in regulation against Missouri (20) and Kentucky (20).

Andrew VU ‘04: If only one or two of the three WRs who transferred out had the foresight of Cassandra and realized they would have been better off with Diego Pavia throwing them the ball...

Is there crane that can be commandeered to hang the goalposts upside down as a giant “horns down” after an upset, or is there a better way to celebrate?

Tom Stephenson: The better way to celebrate is to do horns down in the Cumberland River.

Cole Sullivan: Love this idea. Only other way I can think to celebrate is by toting out one of those mechanical bulls from downtown and having Mr. Commodore ride it outside the stadium exit while the Shorthorn fans stream out. We’ll have to put up barricades to prevent the incoming plastic bottles, of course.

PatrickSawyer: This is absolutely the best response possible after a win Saturday. Sadly, I doubt any are available.

Andrew VU ‘04: I’ll allow it. I’ll also allow said goalposts to be thrown into the Cumberland.

South Carolina can win—or lose—to anybody. Texas is now mortal. Auburn is a dumpster fire. Tennessee is in the mix for an SECCG berth. Wins over Auburn, SCAR (I believe!) Texas and Tennessee would mean that we could have a conference record of 6-3 (assuming a loss to LSU) with some great tiebreakers. Those wins would also mean that UT and Texas (lol) would both also be two-loss SEC teams. How does the SEC determine tiebreakers to get into the championship game since there are no longer divisions?

Tom Stephenson: 6-3? Are we... are we counting Georgia State as an SEC team now?

Cole Sullivan: Tiebreakers will not matter since we’re winning every game from here until the end of the season. Hop on board the hypetrain. Last stop? Atlanta.

PatrickSawyer: So, as Nova Dore said below you (and Andrew had as the original “question:”

The following tiebreakers will be applied, in order, until the tie is broken: Head-to-head record. Record against shared conference opponents. Record against the highest-placed common opponent in the conference standings “and proceeding through the standings among the tied teams.” Cumulative conference winning percentage of conference opponents

I am not getting into anyone else’s schedule enough to guess at where that leaves us in the end. There is too much chaos left.

Andrew VU ‘04: Oh, so I see someone wants me to do research. Wait... there are other guys who can do the research for me. Namely, commenter and frequent mail bag question guy KnockinOnHeavensDore, who says:

I’ve actually done a lot of research on this topic (was even considering doing a fanpost on 9-3 playoff chances). So feel free to copy/paste if you don’t want to do research, Andrew.

If we lost to LSU, we would essentially require LSU to be the other team that makes it (otherwise lose to Texas AM, Alabama, and OK/FLA, which is unlikely). [I am the real Zodiac Killer] TAMU has to lose to Texas too. The other issue is Missouri has to lose two more because they have the tiebreaker over us, and they have a really easy conference schedule (side note: go check their schedule out, I mean seriously, how did they get it so easy without anybody objecting?? I mean, they’re like the tenth best team in the SEC and they could easily make the SECCG). Other than that, Georgia has to lose another game and the only game they’re moderately likely to lose left is Tennessee. So essentially, the scenario would be as follows:

LSU wins out (or at least, beats TAMU)

TAMU loses to Texas (or loses two other games)

Missouri loses two more (which would include at least one unranked)

Georgia loses to Tennessee

Arkansas doesn’t win out (if they did, it would come down to a point differential thing).

There’s also a path if Vandy loses to only Texas, but I won’t get into that.

Not even going to read that. That’s how little I currently want to do research. Hopefully there’s nothing incriminating there.

Would beating the real UT be better than beating THEM (who also claim to be “UT”)

Tom Stephenson: Look, as I live in Texas I refuse to recognize the University of Texas, Austin campus, as the real anything.

Cole Sullivan: Look buddy, I hate all shades of orange. But I hate that puke-inside-of-a-pumpkin orange just a little bit more.

PatrickSawyer: No? Not even close. Beating THEM will always be the best.

Andrew VU ‘04: Why not beat the hell out of both flavors of bottle throwing UT ass-bag? Let’s get to 9-3-1 all time against the Tejas Long Fedoras this week and then worry about those mullet-luging, Franzia-funneling, Bacon and Donut Ma and Pa Kettles in that wig-based economy to the East.

Are we Turnt?

Tom Stephenson: May have to put in a new reading on the Het-O-Meter.

Cole Sullivan: Turnt that goalpost upside down, am I right?

PatrickSawyer: I am writing this on a Wednesday, so this is my night off from nightlife.

Andrew VU ‘04: [Checks around.] Yes?

Cutoff time unfair to west coasters, two time zones to the west of you, out by the Specific Ocean. I threw some water bottles at my laptop, hoping the call might get reversed.

Tom Stephenson: Living on the West Coast sounds like a personal problem.

Cole Sullivan: *picks up the phone* Hey Mr. Sankey. Yeah, what’s that? Heavily tilt the game in favor of the Longhorns because money is the only thing that matters to you and the conference? Well yeah I guess I can do that. *hangs up*

Have fun, expect to be flagged.

PatrickSawyer: Sounds like a personal problem. Suck it up, buttercup.

Andrew VU ‘04: The SEC refs have reversed the call due to your temper tantrum. All of Knoxville is packing French’s mustard bottles to bring to every conference game henceforth.